Sanjay Parate
The blow that the Congress's arrogant politics had threatened to deal to the Mahagathbandhan has been averted after the announcement of the Mahagathbandhan's agreement to appoint Tejaswi as Chief Minister after the Mahagathbandhan's victory. On the other hand, the BJP, on behalf of the NDA alliance, has made it clear that its Chief Minister will be selected only after the elections. This clearly means that even though the BJP is contesting the elections with Nitish Kumar as its face, if the NDA wins, which seems highly unlikely, Nitish Kumar's Chief Ministership is unlikely. It is now impossible for Nitish Kumar to escape the trap he has found himself in, and if he attempts to do so after the elections, his own party will throw him out like a fly in milk. The BJP is fully prepared to swallow the JD(U). With the announcement of Tejaswi as Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar's chances of turning back have also ended. Nitish's future has now been sealed by the BJP-RSS, and whether the election results go one way or the other, one conclusion is very clear : Bihar is about to be liberated from the "Paltu Ram politics" of "Sushasan Babu." The common people of Bihar, who have endured Nitish Kumar's opportunistic politics for years, have also decided this. This is the same Nitish Kumar who has allowed a communal, corrupt, and criminal party like the BJP, whose march was halted by Lalu Prasad Yadav, to gain a foothold in Bihar.
In the last election, the difference between the Mahagathbandhan and the NDA was only 12,000-13,000 votes, but this difference increased the NDA's tally by 15 seats. There were allegations of administrative rigging in favor of the BJP during the counting of votes in several seats. However, the uproar that followed the Election Commission's order to conduct a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list in Bihar, and the findings from across the country, have made it clear that the Election Commission and various forms of systematic rigging played a significant role in the BJP's victories, including the last Lok Sabha elections. This exposure has significantly impacted the BJP's charisma and influence, and in fact, its political credibility has plummeted in the eyes of the public. With the Supreme Court's intervention and public awareness, the likelihood of large-scale rigging by the ruling party in the Bihar elections has diminished. This will have a direct impact on the election results for the BJP-JD(U) camp.
It wouldn't be surprising if a margin of 12,000-13,000 votes five years ago were seen as a difference of 1.2-1.3 million votes in favor of the Mahagathbandhan this time. A lot of water has flowed down the Ganges River in these five years. This river is 445 kilometers long in Bihar and flows through the heart of the state. The 12 major districts through which the Ganges flows include Buxar, Bhojpur, Saran, Patna, Vaishali, Samastipur, Begusarai, Munger, Khagaria, Katihar, Bhagalpur, and Lakhisarai. The BJP-JD(U) alliance is in a bad shape in all these districts. The situation is so dire that even if Prime Minister Modi came here and chanted "Mother Ganga has called," Mother Ganga would hardly be willing to help them. This time, Mother Ganga's blessings appear to be with the Mahagathbandhan. Now, the Prime Minister may call it, in his vulgar language, the "MahaThugbandhan" or the "MahaLathbandhan", or he may call the parties associated with it the "Atak-Jhatak-Bhatak-Latak Dal" or something else. The general public knows that today the Nitish-Modi alliance is the "Maha Lootbandhan," spreading bait and traps, waiting for prey.
A major reason for the Mahagathbandhan's defeat last time was that Congress contested 70 seats, exceeding its capacity, but won only 19. The Left parties contested a much smaller number of seats, and their win rate was almost double that of the Congress. The message was clear : if the Left parties had been allocated more seats, the election results could have swung in the Mahagathbandhan's favor. However, the Congress failed to grasp this message, and conflicts have arisen with the Left parties and the RJD in some seats. This has raised questions about the Congress's wisdom in fighting against the BJP and for secularism. The electoral support base of the Congress and the Left in Bihar is roughly equal. However, the Left has not shown any urgency in contesting more seats this time too. This time, the Left is fighting with greater unity and strength than ever before, and its surge is even more visible than last time. The Left's greater success is essential for the Mahagathbandhan's sustainable future.
The issue of SIR seems to have disappeared from the election, having been central to the "Voter Adhikar Yatra." The Supreme Court's directive to the Election Commission to accept Aadhaar cards and the Commission's decision to add the names of voters deleted on this basis to the electoral rolls has pushed this issue into the background. However, the danger of SIR excluding a large number of eligible voters, most of whom are socio-economically disadvantaged tribals, Dalits, and poor members of backward communities, from the electoral rolls remains unabated. With the upcoming assembly elections, we will likely witness another nationwide clash with the Election Commission on this issue, as it has now transformed from an independent constitutional body into a pocket organization of the BJP-RSS. Therefore, during the Bihar election campaign, the Mahagathbandhan will have to re-focus on this issue, which helped it gain an edge over the BJP-JD(U). Unemployment, education, health, housing, and agriculture are all issues the Mahagathbandhan must contend with, and the BJP's plot to push them back. However, the alliance must avoid and even ignore attacks on the ruling party over petty personal issues, as Modi-Shah and the entire NDA are unmatched in their vulgarity and baseness. The Godi media is there to further exacerbate their vulgarity.
Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan has released its election manifesto. The influence of the Left is clearly visible in this manifesto. The issue of land is crucial for Left parties, and the manifesto promises to distribute surplus land acquired through land ceilings among the landless and poor farmers. Nitish Kumar also made this promise, and he even formed the Bandyopadhyay Committee for this purpose, but later reneged on implementing its recommendations. If the Mahagathbandhan is true to its promise of social justice, the implementation of land reform policies will transform the socio-political and economic landscape of Bihar. The increased purchasing power of the common people through the land reform program will not only expand the domestic market but also create new employment opportunities with industrial development. The land reform agenda has the potential to lift Bihar from the category of a sick state. The Mahagathbandhan has made unemployment a major issue facing the people of Bihar today, and in its manifesto, it has attempted to offer imaginative solutions to it.
The reason why the BJP is avoiding contesting elections on the issue of development, which it has been claiming for the last 11 years, is clear. The NITI Aayog report (2021) states that today 65 million people in Bihar are living in multidimensional poverty, 65.8 million people are malnourished, including 43.9% children and 60.3% women. According to the United Nations Development Programme, India's average Human Development Index (HDI) score in 2022 was 0.644, while Bihar's was 0.609. In these figures, Bihar stands at the bottom among the 29 states of the country.
41% of women here were married before the age of 18. Bihar ranks 28th on this criterion. This situation of Bihari women also affects the health of their children. According to the National Family Health Survey, while India's infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) is 35.2, Bihar ranks 27th with a rate of 46.8. Bihar ranks 27th with the highest number of stunted children (42.9%) and 29th with the highest number of underweight children (22.9%). Data from the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation shows that Bihar also ranks 27th in terms of school dropouts (20.5%) in grades 9-10, and 28th in grades 11-12 with a total enrollment ratio of only 35.9%. Only 17.1% of children who complete schooling are able to attend college, ranking 28th. Only 14.6% of households in Bihar (29th place) receive health insurance coverage.
The state of good governance in Bihar is evident from the constant violence during the election campaign. After frying pakodas, the BJP is now promising Bihari youth dreams of finding employment by making reels. This shows that the BJP has neither issues nor achievements. Therefore, the opposition alliance now has the opportunity to address the general public across the country under the pretext of elections.
The unity of the INDIA Bloc in the Lok Sabha elections prevented the BJP from securing a clear majority. The enthusiasm thus generated among the country's opposition forces was dampened by the BJP camp through planned rigging in Maharashtra and other states. Now, the Bihar elections offer the NDIA Bloc another opportunity to emerge nationally, provided the Congress prioritizes the interests of Bihar's poor over its own partisan interests. Modi has sealed Nitish's future. The future of the INDIA Bloc, via the Mahagathbandhan, will be decided by the people of Bihar, based on their unity and conduct. For now, there are still two full weeks left for speculation.
The author is an independent writer on politics, social and agrarian issues. The views are personal.
In the last election, the difference between the Mahagathbandhan and the NDA was only 12,000-13,000 votes, but this difference increased the NDA's tally by 15 seats. There were allegations of administrative rigging in favor of the BJP during the counting of votes in several seats. However, the uproar that followed the Election Commission's order to conduct a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list in Bihar, and the findings from across the country, have made it clear that the Election Commission and various forms of systematic rigging played a significant role in the BJP's victories, including the last Lok Sabha elections. This exposure has significantly impacted the BJP's charisma and influence, and in fact, its political credibility has plummeted in the eyes of the public. With the Supreme Court's intervention and public awareness, the likelihood of large-scale rigging by the ruling party in the Bihar elections has diminished. This will have a direct impact on the election results for the BJP-JD(U) camp.
It wouldn't be surprising if a margin of 12,000-13,000 votes five years ago were seen as a difference of 1.2-1.3 million votes in favor of the Mahagathbandhan this time. A lot of water has flowed down the Ganges River in these five years. This river is 445 kilometers long in Bihar and flows through the heart of the state. The 12 major districts through which the Ganges flows include Buxar, Bhojpur, Saran, Patna, Vaishali, Samastipur, Begusarai, Munger, Khagaria, Katihar, Bhagalpur, and Lakhisarai. The BJP-JD(U) alliance is in a bad shape in all these districts. The situation is so dire that even if Prime Minister Modi came here and chanted "Mother Ganga has called," Mother Ganga would hardly be willing to help them. This time, Mother Ganga's blessings appear to be with the Mahagathbandhan. Now, the Prime Minister may call it, in his vulgar language, the "MahaThugbandhan" or the "MahaLathbandhan", or he may call the parties associated with it the "Atak-Jhatak-Bhatak-Latak Dal" or something else. The general public knows that today the Nitish-Modi alliance is the "Maha Lootbandhan," spreading bait and traps, waiting for prey.
A major reason for the Mahagathbandhan's defeat last time was that Congress contested 70 seats, exceeding its capacity, but won only 19. The Left parties contested a much smaller number of seats, and their win rate was almost double that of the Congress. The message was clear : if the Left parties had been allocated more seats, the election results could have swung in the Mahagathbandhan's favor. However, the Congress failed to grasp this message, and conflicts have arisen with the Left parties and the RJD in some seats. This has raised questions about the Congress's wisdom in fighting against the BJP and for secularism. The electoral support base of the Congress and the Left in Bihar is roughly equal. However, the Left has not shown any urgency in contesting more seats this time too. This time, the Left is fighting with greater unity and strength than ever before, and its surge is even more visible than last time. The Left's greater success is essential for the Mahagathbandhan's sustainable future.
The issue of SIR seems to have disappeared from the election, having been central to the "Voter Adhikar Yatra." The Supreme Court's directive to the Election Commission to accept Aadhaar cards and the Commission's decision to add the names of voters deleted on this basis to the electoral rolls has pushed this issue into the background. However, the danger of SIR excluding a large number of eligible voters, most of whom are socio-economically disadvantaged tribals, Dalits, and poor members of backward communities, from the electoral rolls remains unabated. With the upcoming assembly elections, we will likely witness another nationwide clash with the Election Commission on this issue, as it has now transformed from an independent constitutional body into a pocket organization of the BJP-RSS. Therefore, during the Bihar election campaign, the Mahagathbandhan will have to re-focus on this issue, which helped it gain an edge over the BJP-JD(U). Unemployment, education, health, housing, and agriculture are all issues the Mahagathbandhan must contend with, and the BJP's plot to push them back. However, the alliance must avoid and even ignore attacks on the ruling party over petty personal issues, as Modi-Shah and the entire NDA are unmatched in their vulgarity and baseness. The Godi media is there to further exacerbate their vulgarity.
Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan has released its election manifesto. The influence of the Left is clearly visible in this manifesto. The issue of land is crucial for Left parties, and the manifesto promises to distribute surplus land acquired through land ceilings among the landless and poor farmers. Nitish Kumar also made this promise, and he even formed the Bandyopadhyay Committee for this purpose, but later reneged on implementing its recommendations. If the Mahagathbandhan is true to its promise of social justice, the implementation of land reform policies will transform the socio-political and economic landscape of Bihar. The increased purchasing power of the common people through the land reform program will not only expand the domestic market but also create new employment opportunities with industrial development. The land reform agenda has the potential to lift Bihar from the category of a sick state. The Mahagathbandhan has made unemployment a major issue facing the people of Bihar today, and in its manifesto, it has attempted to offer imaginative solutions to it.
The reason why the BJP is avoiding contesting elections on the issue of development, which it has been claiming for the last 11 years, is clear. The NITI Aayog report (2021) states that today 65 million people in Bihar are living in multidimensional poverty, 65.8 million people are malnourished, including 43.9% children and 60.3% women. According to the United Nations Development Programme, India's average Human Development Index (HDI) score in 2022 was 0.644, while Bihar's was 0.609. In these figures, Bihar stands at the bottom among the 29 states of the country.
41% of women here were married before the age of 18. Bihar ranks 28th on this criterion. This situation of Bihari women also affects the health of their children. According to the National Family Health Survey, while India's infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) is 35.2, Bihar ranks 27th with a rate of 46.8. Bihar ranks 27th with the highest number of stunted children (42.9%) and 29th with the highest number of underweight children (22.9%). Data from the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation shows that Bihar also ranks 27th in terms of school dropouts (20.5%) in grades 9-10, and 28th in grades 11-12 with a total enrollment ratio of only 35.9%. Only 17.1% of children who complete schooling are able to attend college, ranking 28th. Only 14.6% of households in Bihar (29th place) receive health insurance coverage.
The state of good governance in Bihar is evident from the constant violence during the election campaign. After frying pakodas, the BJP is now promising Bihari youth dreams of finding employment by making reels. This shows that the BJP has neither issues nor achievements. Therefore, the opposition alliance now has the opportunity to address the general public across the country under the pretext of elections.
The unity of the INDIA Bloc in the Lok Sabha elections prevented the BJP from securing a clear majority. The enthusiasm thus generated among the country's opposition forces was dampened by the BJP camp through planned rigging in Maharashtra and other states. Now, the Bihar elections offer the NDIA Bloc another opportunity to emerge nationally, provided the Congress prioritizes the interests of Bihar's poor over its own partisan interests. Modi has sealed Nitish's future. The future of the INDIA Bloc, via the Mahagathbandhan, will be decided by the people of Bihar, based on their unity and conduct. For now, there are still two full weeks left for speculation.
The author is an independent writer on politics, social and agrarian issues. The views are personal.
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