The defeat of the AAP in Delhi has not only ended the myth of it being an alternative on a national scale, but it has trapped the country in a major tragedy. The victory of the BJP has disappointed all those who understand the real danger of the BJP-RSS-Corporate alliance that instead of watering the roots of democracy in our country, it is pouring curd in it.

Let us begin with the emergence of the INDIA bloc before the Lok Sabha elections. It was born out of the understanding among the anti-BJP forces that the biggest tragedy for the country today is the BJP, which is not an independent political party but the political wing of the RSS, whose well-known hidden agenda is to change Ambedkar's Constitution and the secular character of the country and to establish a Hindu nation based on Manusmriti. Slowly walking on this path for the last ten years, today they have progressed so much that they are openly declaring it and doing the politics of hatred and attacking women, Dalits and tribals under the protection of the government, shamelessly selling the institutions and public property of the country, have illegally collected thousands of crores of rupees from the corporates in the name of election funds and have become experts in distorting the election process by capturing the Election Commission. Their entire campaign is to convert our democratic republic into a fascist republic and to legitimize their anti-people and pro-corporate policies through electoral victory.

Despite all its weaknesses, the parties of the INDIA bloc had united in the Lok Sabha elections and put forth the danger before the people of the country that the slogan of '400 Paar' given by the BJP was actually to change the Constitution. The general public had also given a positive response to this and refused to give a clear majority to the BJP. If the Congress had been able to save its ground in states like Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, then the BJP would not have got a chance to stay in power even with the help of two crutches. The reasons for the defeat of the Congress in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are very clear and one of the major reasons was its soft Hindutva policies and its pro-corporate inclination in the matter of water, forest, land and being steeped in corruption.

It was also clear from the analysis of the state-wise results of the Lok Sabha elections that to defeat the BJP, the opposition organised at the state level will have to make a joint strategy. Wherever they were able to do so after the Lok Sabha elections, they were successful in keeping the BJP away from power. The results of the Delhi elections have again made it clear that wherever this understanding is violated, the path of the BJP will be easy.

Kejriwal, who emerged from the Anna movement with his anti-corruption image, formed the Aam Aadmi Party and registered a landslide victory in 2013 and again in 2015. He repeated this victory in 2020 as well. The shine and thunder of this victory was so strong that it established AAP and Kejriwal at the national level. Many supporters of the left also saw a ray of hope in AAP, because the parliamentary influence of the left had weakened at the national level. They hoped that the AAP party would be able to change the politics of this country by putting forward an alternative policy. But in the last five years, their hopes were shattered, because at the ideological level, the AAP party proved to be the most "zero" and tried to advance its politics only through some popular schemes and programs. Kejriwal tried to fill this ideological void by keeping himself at the centre. The AAP party did not have any defined clear view on any issue of national politics and its workers continued to be driven by their personal stance. Such ideological bankruptcy was bound to be disgraced.

Dalits make up 17% of the population of Delhi state, while minorities account for about 18-20% of the population, including 13% Muslims. Upper castes have 35-40% of the votes, while backward classes also have about 30%. The rise of Kejriwal and AAP influenced Dalits, minorities, backward classes and a large section of the lower class and middle class. Those sections were also attracted to AAP, who, despite agreeing with the communal policies of BJP, were dissatisfied with it for some reason and saw a reflection of BJP in the working style of AAP. AAP was not branded as BJP's 'B team' without any reason.

A large section of the general masses, including a large section of the youth, saw their aspirations in the rise of Kejriwal and AAP. In 2013, he got about 30% of the votes, but the positive steps he took in the field of education and health and the vigorous publicity of these schemes by which he established himself as a different kind of party doing public welfare politics, due to which his vote percentage increased to 54-55% in 2015 and 2020. Meanwhile, the BJP's support base remained between 33-38%, while the Congress's support base shrunk from 25% to 4%. It is clear from this that Kejriwal could not make a dent in the BJP's votes, but he managed to capture the traditional votes of the Congress. The shift of votes from Congress to AAP was the result of Congress' ideological direction lessness and its failure to provide a capable alternative to the BJP and AAP cannot be blamed for this. The AAP party had won all the 12 seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes in 2015 and 2020. Apart from this, it also won the other 18 seats where Dalit votes were quite influential. The 11 seats on which minorities had a significant influence also went into its bag. In this assembly election too, among the 22 seats on which the AAP has won, there are 8 Dalit and 8 minority dominated seats, which stood with Kejriwal even in this storm.

In the 2022 municipal elections, once again Kejriwal won 134 out of a total of 250 seats and the BJP got 104 seats. Congress had to be satisfied with only 9 seats.

But if we look at the assembly wise data of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, then the changing mood of the general public can be sensed. In this election, BJP got about 55% of the votes and got a lead in 52 assembly seats. Fighting jointly as INDIA bloc, they got a combined vote share of about 43%. AAP got a lead in 10 seats and Congress in 8 seats. Any strategy for the assembly elections should have been made keeping these results in mind, as BJP had a lead of 12% votes and 34 seats.

Therefore, in this assembly election, there was a need that AAP and Congress should have fought together as INDIA block with more understanding, more unity and with a broad consensus on concrete political issues to keep BJP away from power in Delhi. But this need was ignored, believing that BJP has always won the Lok Sabha elections and this time too it will not have any effect on the assembly elections.

As a result, it was wrongly concluded that there is no benefit in contesting elections together. Congress was eyeing the anti-incumbency votes of AAP, on the basis of which it wanted to increase the lead it had got in 8 assembly seats in the Lok Sabha elections. AAP also felt that it would be able to ride the boat of power again on the wave of sympathy created by BJP's politics of revenge. But this was not supposed to happen, nor did it happen.

The election results show that the vote percentage of Congress has definitely increased by 2%, but it could not avoid making a hat-trick of getting out on zero. Yes, it did manage to defeat AAP on 13 seats. A fall of about 10% in AAP's votes ensured its ouster from power. Most of the votes due to this fall shifted to BJP, as BJP's votes increased from 38% to 46%. But the total vote percentage of both the parties tells that the people of Delhi have handed over the key of power to BJP reluctantly, because due to their respective political stubbornness, they had given a walkover to BJP even before entering the election field. Both these parties cannot escape their responsibility for this.



To win the election, the BJP used every kind of tactic. It used the office of the lieutenant governor to neutralise Kejriwal's power. It ran a poisonous communal propaganda campaign. Owaisi's party AIMIM helped in communal polarisation. To counter the Dalit votes, BSP was also brought into the fray by wooing Mayawati. The Election Commission was in the field to help the BJP completely and did not pay any attention to any complaint against the BJP, including electoral violence and distribution of money and sarees. In the 8-month period between the last Lok Sabha and this assembly election, the number of voters in Delhi has increased by 5%, which is unprecedented. Even the Union Budget was used to woo the middle-class voters of Delhi. Income tax exemption up to Rs 12 lakh was given with this view. The Sheeshmahal allegation destroyed Kejriwal's anti-corruption and honest image, while the liquor policy scam, financial irregularities in the Delhi Jal Board, and the arrests of prominent AAP leaders including Kejriwal destroyed the Delhi model of the AAP.

Instead of countering the aggressive attacks of the BJP, the entire focus of the AAP was on attacking the Congress. Instead of exposing the 460 crore golden palace being built for Modi in Central Vista, it preferred to put Rahul Gandhi in the list of corrupt leaders. The past of the AAP was also following it. During the Delhi riots in March 2020, it was nowhere to be seen wiping the tears of the victims. Even in the struggle against the Citizenship Act (CAA), it had only done communal manoeuvring. To counter the BJP's Ram in the elections, Kejriwal appeared as a Hanuman devotee. The election campaign of the AAP was scattered and whatever was there, was limited to Kejriwal only. The election campaign of the Congress was also not against the BJP, but against the AAP and Kejriwal. Both the parties had forgotten the perspective that the main fight is against the BJP. It was against the unanimous sentiment of the INDIA block. So, both these parties cannot escape their responsibility for the results that came out.

The entire focus of the election campaign was on who was distributing how many freebies. Then who can beat BJP in distributing freebies? BJP's appeal to form a double engine government worked, while AAP's Mahila Samman Yojana did not impress women, because it had not fulfilled a similar promise in Punjab. Due to this, the women's vote bank shifted from AAP. Ideology and issues were completely missing in the election. This is what BJP wanted. The issue of the attack on the basic principles of the Constitution by BJP on the strength of its parliamentary majority and the need for united resistance of the countrymen including the people of Delhi against this attack was completely missing. Similarly, the issue of deteriorating health of the common people due to liberalization and privatization was also not in the debate anywhere. Giving full statehood to Delhi, which BJP had promised long ago, was not a matter of concern for both the parties. Everyone was playing their own drum, singing their own tune.

The BJP's 27-year exile from Delhi ended. But the arrival of BJP is going to prove to be the birth of another big tragedy for the masses of the country. This victory of the BJP is going to make the renunciation of political purity and morality 'New Normal'. This victory is going to give him an opportunity to tell his corporate policies to the acceptance of the common people. This victory is going to overcome the defeat of the Lok Sabha and give additional encouragement to the BJP for the assembly elections of other states including Bihar within a year. This victory is going to be another increased step for the BJP towards the establishment of its Hindu nation. The election results of Delhi have increased a tragedy hovering over the head of the country, turning an apprehension into possibility. The connivance of Hindutva with corporates has brought so much manure to its roots that a fictional threat of a time has become a real threat in today's politics. But there is still time to understand the correct meanings of the results of the Delhi election and the Congress properly understand the BJP's efforts to turn the democratic republic into a fascist republic. If the BJP's campaign is to be stopped, then the general public will have to mobilize and put up fronts on the road, strengthening the fronts inside the Parliament and the Legislative Assembly. There is still time to receive many messages coming out of the results of the Delhi election in INDIA block, in its true sense.


The author is an independent writer on politics, social and agrarian issues. The views are personal.