Analysis

What Numbers Will Congress Achieve in J&K? Rahul Gandhi Seeks Answers

Rahul Gandhi will be holding separate meetings with party officials in Jammu and Kashmir to discuss strategy and potential alliances.

What Numbers Will Congress Achieve in J&K? Rahul Gandhi Seeks Answers

Rahul Gandhi interacting with the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Image credit: X/@INCIndia

Assembly elections are set to return to Jammu and Kashmir next month after a decade. The arrival of Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi and All India Congress Committee President Mallikarjun Kharge in Srinagar has generated speculation about the Congress party's strategy for these key elections.

Rahul Gandhi will be holding separate meetings with party officials in Jammu and Kashmir to discuss strategy and potential alliances.

There is speculation on whether Congress will contest the elections independently or forge alliances with other parties. The Congress is considering a possible alliance with former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Farooq Abdullah's National Conference (NC) and at the same time keeping options open for collaboration with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) led by Mehbooba Mufti, the region's first female Chief Minister.

However, some within the party advocate for a solo run in the elections, arguing that the Congress has strengthened since the Lok Sabha elections and should proceed independently in the assembly polls.

Political observers suggest that a pre-poll alliance among the three parties could significantly challenge the Bharatiya Janta Party's (BJP) efforts to regain power in Jammu and Kashmir, especially after the party exited its coalition with the PDP in 2018. Additionally, these parties are members of the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), which was established after to the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.

However, since its formation in 2020, the PAGD alliance—created as a constitutional effort to “restore the rights of the people of the state to what they were before August 5, 2019”—has encountered internal disputes and struggled to maintain a unified stance against the Modi government at the Centre.

In the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, the NC and PDP were unable to reach a seat-sharing agreement and went their separate ways. As a result, the NC secured two seats, while both the Congress and PDP failed to win any.

Congress General Secretary KC Venugopal emphasized the party’s determination to prevent a BJP victory, underscoring a fierce competition between the India Bloc and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Jammu and Kashmir.

The Election Commission has announced that the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir will be conducted in three phases across 90 constituencies: September 18 (24 constituencies), September 25 (26 constituencies), and October 1 (40 constituencies). Concurrently, Haryana will have polling on October 1 for all 90 constituencies, with results for both states expected on October 4.

This will be the first assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir since 2014. Following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, which removed the region's special status, there has been no assembly election.

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