Mahesh Kumar
The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), despite its success in the recent Lok Sabha elections, has suffered a significant setback in the state assembly polls. According to the Election Commission of India, the MVA is leading in only 51 of the 288 seats as of 3:15 pm.
Meanwhile, the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti coalition has crossed the halfway mark of 145 seats, asserting a commanding position in the assembly.
Amid Maharashtra's politically charged landscape since 2019, the Mahayuti’s victory has propelled Devendra Fadnavis into the spotlight as the likely Chief Minister. Party leaders credit the success to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and the resonance of the slogan “Ek hain toh safe hain” (Unity ensures safety).
In terms of vote share, the Congress witnessed a sharp decline, dropping from 16.92% in the Lok Sabha elections to 10.88% in the assembly polls, securing only 19 seats.
The BJP also saw a marginal decrease in vote share, from 26.18% in the Lok Sabha elections to 25.32%, but led in 127 assembly constituencies.
The Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had a steady performance, increasing its vote share from 10.27% in the Lok Sabha polls to 11.67% in the assembly, winning 13 seats.
The most notable surge came from the Ajit Pawar-led faction of the NCP, which boosted its vote share from 3.60% in the Lok Sabha elections to 10.56% in the assembly polls. The Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena also made significant gains, winning 54 seats with a vote share of 12.50%, compared to 7 Lok Sabha seats earlier.
However, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) faction struggled, securing only 12 seats with a reduced vote share of 10.74%, down from 16.72% during the general elections.
The erosion of Congress's support base, coupled with the vote transfer from the MVA allies to the BJP-led Mahayuti, played a pivotal role in this outcome. The anticipated Maratha versus OBC consolidation failed to materialize, further weakening the MVA’s position.
Smaller parties like the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) and Swabhimani Paksha also lost ground, with a decline in their vote shares.
Looking ahead, the BJP’s decisive victory raises questions about its next move in state leadership. While Eknath Shinde is likely to remain Chief Minister to maintain coalition stability, particularly with crucial battles like the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections looming, the BJP’s long-term strategy may involve asserting greater control. Keeping Ajit Pawar aligned will also be crucial for dismantling Sharad Pawar’s influence in western Maharashtra.
Ultimately, the BJP’s tactical alignment with Shinde and Ajit Pawar appears to have effectively neutralized its key challengers, the Thackerays and Sharad Pawar. With this assembly victory, the BJP is one step closer to its goal of making Maharashtra virtually opposition-free.
The writer is an independent journalist. The views are personal.
Meanwhile, the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti coalition has crossed the halfway mark of 145 seats, asserting a commanding position in the assembly.
Amid Maharashtra's politically charged landscape since 2019, the Mahayuti’s victory has propelled Devendra Fadnavis into the spotlight as the likely Chief Minister. Party leaders credit the success to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and the resonance of the slogan “Ek hain toh safe hain” (Unity ensures safety).
In terms of vote share, the Congress witnessed a sharp decline, dropping from 16.92% in the Lok Sabha elections to 10.88% in the assembly polls, securing only 19 seats.
The BJP also saw a marginal decrease in vote share, from 26.18% in the Lok Sabha elections to 25.32%, but led in 127 assembly constituencies.
The Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had a steady performance, increasing its vote share from 10.27% in the Lok Sabha polls to 11.67% in the assembly, winning 13 seats.
The most notable surge came from the Ajit Pawar-led faction of the NCP, which boosted its vote share from 3.60% in the Lok Sabha elections to 10.56% in the assembly polls. The Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena also made significant gains, winning 54 seats with a vote share of 12.50%, compared to 7 Lok Sabha seats earlier.
However, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) faction struggled, securing only 12 seats with a reduced vote share of 10.74%, down from 16.72% during the general elections.
The erosion of Congress's support base, coupled with the vote transfer from the MVA allies to the BJP-led Mahayuti, played a pivotal role in this outcome. The anticipated Maratha versus OBC consolidation failed to materialize, further weakening the MVA’s position.
Smaller parties like the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) and Swabhimani Paksha also lost ground, with a decline in their vote shares.
Looking ahead, the BJP’s decisive victory raises questions about its next move in state leadership. While Eknath Shinde is likely to remain Chief Minister to maintain coalition stability, particularly with crucial battles like the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections looming, the BJP’s long-term strategy may involve asserting greater control. Keeping Ajit Pawar aligned will also be crucial for dismantling Sharad Pawar’s influence in western Maharashtra.
Ultimately, the BJP’s tactical alignment with Shinde and Ajit Pawar appears to have effectively neutralized its key challengers, the Thackerays and Sharad Pawar. With this assembly victory, the BJP is one step closer to its goal of making Maharashtra virtually opposition-free.
The writer is an independent journalist. The views are personal.
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