Mahesh Kumar
As the assembly elections draw near, Maharashtra's political scene is intensifying, highlighted by Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis filing his nomination for the Nagpur South West constituency amidst a crowd of enthusiastic BJP supporters. Before heading to submit his nomination, Fadnavis visited Union Minister Nitin Gadkari’s residence to seek his blessings.
A seasoned politician and a five-term MLA, Fadnavis has previously secured victories in Nagpur West twice (1999 and 2004) and Nagpur South West three times (2009, 2014, and 2019). The state is bracing itself for one of its most anticipated elections in recent years, characterized by considerable political upheaval over the past five years, including three different chief ministers and the fragmentation of two major regional parties. This turmoil has resulted in two unconventional and somewhat unstable alliances vying for power in the upcoming assembly elections.
Past Election Results
In the May-June 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Maharashtra surprised many by granting the struggling opposition, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), 31 (or 32) out of 48 parliamentary seats. The MVA managed to secure four of the six seats in Mumbai, with one narrowly lost by just 48 votes. As the November 20 elections approach, Mumbai—India’s vibrant metropolis—will once again serve as a battleground for this electoral contest. The key question remains: Will it be Mahayuti (MY) or MVA?
In the last assembly election, the Opposition MVA won 151 assembly segments, while the ruling Mahayuti secured 127 segments. This would indicate a clear victory for the MVA and a majority in the 288-member Assembly. However, the vote shares suggest a much closer contest, with Mahayuti garnering approximately 43% of the votes compared to MVA's slight edge at 44%.
It’s important to note that Lok Sabha election results do not always directly translate into success in subsequent assembly elections. Local issues often dominate the narrative, and the performance of the state government comes under greater scrutiny. While the Lok Sabha results may boost MVA morale, the upcoming Assembly elections on November 20 are poised to be closely contested.
The Politics
To gauge the poll prospects, it’s essential to consider the tumultuous political landscape over the past five years. In the 2019 assembly election, the BJP and Shiv Sena formed an alliance, while Congress and NCP united to contest. The BJP-Sena alliance triumphed, winning 161 seats with a vote share of 42%, while the Congress-NCP alliance, known as MVA, secured only 98 seats with 35% of the votes. A significant portion of the electorate—approximately 25%—voted for other parties, reflecting disillusionment with established political entities as voters sought alternatives. However, this dispersed support did not translate proportionally into seats.
The election results soon became contentious as the Shiv Sena severed its ties with the BJP and joined the opposition Congress-NCP alliance, claiming that the BJP had reneged on a promise to grant them the chief minister's position. This paved the way for Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sena chief, to assume the role of chief minister. The BJP attempted to thwart this by persuading Ajit Pawar from the NCP to take an oath as chief minister in the dead of night, facilitated by a compliant Governor, Bhagat Singh Koshyari. This manoeuvre ultimately failed, resulting in Thackeray leading an unlikely coalition government that lasted for about two and a half years.
The coalition collapsed in June 2022 when a faction of Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, broke away and allied with the BJP. Concurrently, Ajit Pawar split from the NCP, leading a group of MLAs to join forces with Shinde and the BJP. This unexpected coalition, now known as Mahayuti, came to power with Shinde as chief minister and Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar from the splinter NCP as deputy chief ministers.
These political machinations—reportedly involving horse-trading and underhanded deals—have tarnished the image of all three parties. While electoral politics in India is often marred by corruption, these events marked a new low, leaving the electorate disillusioned. The Mahayuti has struggled to recover from this reputational damage, particularly as it has moved to withdraw corruption cases against Ajit Pawar, a practice that has become common for the BJP across the country, with reports indicating that cases against 23 of 25 opposition leaders were withdrawn after they allied with the BJP.
Anti-incumbency
The indifferent functioning of the Mahayuti government, combined with a growing perception that Maharashtra is being sidelined by the central government, has fueled opposition sentiment, particularly with Uddhav Thackeray garnering public sympathy. The Mahayuti's handling of agrarian issues has been particularly criticized. Protests erupted against three agriculture-related laws introduced by the Narendra Modi government, with Maharashtra witnessing significant participation from farmers in these demonstrations.
Additionally, the tribal population in the Thane region has struggled for their rights, often marching to Mumbai to voice their demands. Persistent droughts, crop failures, rising debt, and a troubling rate of farmer suicides continue to plague the state. In 2023, 2,851 farmers died by suicide, while the figure in 2022 was 2,942. In the first half of 2024 alone, 1,267 farmers have tragically taken their lives, underscoring the urgent need for effective solutions to these long-standing agrarian crises.
Although Maharashtra is predominantly urban, with 45% of its population residing in cities, about 50% still depend on agriculture, which contributed only 12% to the state's gross domestic product (GSDP) in 2022-23. This disparity highlights the saturation in agricultural employment and the lack of opportunities in other sectors.
The state has also been grappling with prolonged protests from the Maratha community, seeking classification as Other Backward Class (OBC) to benefit from reservation in education and government jobs. This demand has created significant challenges for the Shinde government, despite assurances that it will be addressed. Other OBC communities oppose this move, fearing a loss of opportunities, while the underlying issues of unemployment and unprofitable agriculture remain unresolved.
Given this context, the incumbent Mahayuti is poised to face a formidable challenge in the upcoming elections. However, the pressing question remains: Does the MVA possess the resilience and capability to rise to this critical challenge?
A seasoned politician and a five-term MLA, Fadnavis has previously secured victories in Nagpur West twice (1999 and 2004) and Nagpur South West three times (2009, 2014, and 2019). The state is bracing itself for one of its most anticipated elections in recent years, characterized by considerable political upheaval over the past five years, including three different chief ministers and the fragmentation of two major regional parties. This turmoil has resulted in two unconventional and somewhat unstable alliances vying for power in the upcoming assembly elections.
Past Election Results
In the May-June 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Maharashtra surprised many by granting the struggling opposition, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), 31 (or 32) out of 48 parliamentary seats. The MVA managed to secure four of the six seats in Mumbai, with one narrowly lost by just 48 votes. As the November 20 elections approach, Mumbai—India’s vibrant metropolis—will once again serve as a battleground for this electoral contest. The key question remains: Will it be Mahayuti (MY) or MVA?
In the last assembly election, the Opposition MVA won 151 assembly segments, while the ruling Mahayuti secured 127 segments. This would indicate a clear victory for the MVA and a majority in the 288-member Assembly. However, the vote shares suggest a much closer contest, with Mahayuti garnering approximately 43% of the votes compared to MVA's slight edge at 44%.
It’s important to note that Lok Sabha election results do not always directly translate into success in subsequent assembly elections. Local issues often dominate the narrative, and the performance of the state government comes under greater scrutiny. While the Lok Sabha results may boost MVA morale, the upcoming Assembly elections on November 20 are poised to be closely contested.
The Politics
To gauge the poll prospects, it’s essential to consider the tumultuous political landscape over the past five years. In the 2019 assembly election, the BJP and Shiv Sena formed an alliance, while Congress and NCP united to contest. The BJP-Sena alliance triumphed, winning 161 seats with a vote share of 42%, while the Congress-NCP alliance, known as MVA, secured only 98 seats with 35% of the votes. A significant portion of the electorate—approximately 25%—voted for other parties, reflecting disillusionment with established political entities as voters sought alternatives. However, this dispersed support did not translate proportionally into seats.
The election results soon became contentious as the Shiv Sena severed its ties with the BJP and joined the opposition Congress-NCP alliance, claiming that the BJP had reneged on a promise to grant them the chief minister's position. This paved the way for Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sena chief, to assume the role of chief minister. The BJP attempted to thwart this by persuading Ajit Pawar from the NCP to take an oath as chief minister in the dead of night, facilitated by a compliant Governor, Bhagat Singh Koshyari. This manoeuvre ultimately failed, resulting in Thackeray leading an unlikely coalition government that lasted for about two and a half years.
The coalition collapsed in June 2022 when a faction of Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, broke away and allied with the BJP. Concurrently, Ajit Pawar split from the NCP, leading a group of MLAs to join forces with Shinde and the BJP. This unexpected coalition, now known as Mahayuti, came to power with Shinde as chief minister and Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar from the splinter NCP as deputy chief ministers.
These political machinations—reportedly involving horse-trading and underhanded deals—have tarnished the image of all three parties. While electoral politics in India is often marred by corruption, these events marked a new low, leaving the electorate disillusioned. The Mahayuti has struggled to recover from this reputational damage, particularly as it has moved to withdraw corruption cases against Ajit Pawar, a practice that has become common for the BJP across the country, with reports indicating that cases against 23 of 25 opposition leaders were withdrawn after they allied with the BJP.
Anti-incumbency
The indifferent functioning of the Mahayuti government, combined with a growing perception that Maharashtra is being sidelined by the central government, has fueled opposition sentiment, particularly with Uddhav Thackeray garnering public sympathy. The Mahayuti's handling of agrarian issues has been particularly criticized. Protests erupted against three agriculture-related laws introduced by the Narendra Modi government, with Maharashtra witnessing significant participation from farmers in these demonstrations.
Additionally, the tribal population in the Thane region has struggled for their rights, often marching to Mumbai to voice their demands. Persistent droughts, crop failures, rising debt, and a troubling rate of farmer suicides continue to plague the state. In 2023, 2,851 farmers died by suicide, while the figure in 2022 was 2,942. In the first half of 2024 alone, 1,267 farmers have tragically taken their lives, underscoring the urgent need for effective solutions to these long-standing agrarian crises.
Although Maharashtra is predominantly urban, with 45% of its population residing in cities, about 50% still depend on agriculture, which contributed only 12% to the state's gross domestic product (GSDP) in 2022-23. This disparity highlights the saturation in agricultural employment and the lack of opportunities in other sectors.
The state has also been grappling with prolonged protests from the Maratha community, seeking classification as Other Backward Class (OBC) to benefit from reservation in education and government jobs. This demand has created significant challenges for the Shinde government, despite assurances that it will be addressed. Other OBC communities oppose this move, fearing a loss of opportunities, while the underlying issues of unemployment and unprofitable agriculture remain unresolved.
Given this context, the incumbent Mahayuti is poised to face a formidable challenge in the upcoming elections. However, the pressing question remains: Does the MVA possess the resilience and capability to rise to this critical challenge?
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