Saurabh Mukherjee
The most talked about story on the day of counting for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is the remarkable turnaround for the Samajwadi Party (SP), the part of INDIA Bloc with the Congress in Uttar Pradesh. As of now at 6:15 PM, the INDIA bloc is leading in 41 seats of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The SP alone emerged as the largest party in the state and the third largest in the country.
When nobody gave them a chance, the combine made heavy in-roads into the state which has been a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bastion in recent times, and made a sizable dent to BJP’s image, especially that of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The fightback is all the more fascinating given that the BJP was finally able to deliver its long-standing Hindutva agenda of Ram Mandir.
In hindsight it seems, the anti-incumbency against BJP have peaked this election season as people were facing lot of hardships. There was massive unemployment, price rise, law and order issues and nothing was done to fulfil the lofty promises made by the BJP.
A lot of BJP leaders made statements favouring changes in the Constitution. There attacks on Muslims, women and the Dalit. The SP and the INDIA bloc fought on these issues.
SP’s ticket distribution focusing on non-Yadav OBCs also might have been a game changer. SP gave 27 tickets to non-Yadav OBCs; 11 to upper castes, including four Brahmins, two Thakurs, two Vaishyas, and one Khatri; and four to Muslims, besides 15 Dalit candidates in the SC-reserved constituencies. Only 5 tickets were given to Yadavs, that too from party supremo Akhilesh Yadav’s family.
This could implicate a possible percentage vote shift of Thakurs, Pandeys and others upper caste Hindus from BJP to SP. In 2014, the SP had contested 78 seats, and fielded 12 Yadav candidates, including four from the party’s “first family.”
Akhilesh Yadav took a flexible approach in several constituencies, changing candidates depending on feedback from local cadre and local caste equation.
Another major shift of votes might have come from the Dalits which have finally dumped the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) as protector of their rights. Consolidation of Muslim votes might also have been another factor for the grand come of SP-Congress combine. However, on this account, it was more to do with BSP’s failure rather than SP’s good work.
Muslim votes have been SP’s strong hold in recently years. Traditionally the Muslim votes have shifted from Mayawati’s BSP to SP, post Babri Masjid demolition in 1992. Since then, the trust deficit between BSP and the Muslim community has gone in the wrong direction over the years.
Mayawati’s differences with Naseemuddin Siddiqui, a prominent Muslim face of the BSP had a negative impact on the Muslim community. Siddiqui played a pivotal role in bringing Muslims close to the pro-Dalit party BSP in 2007.
Recently another instant which hampered relation of the party with the community, is the Danish Ali episode. Ali received empathy in the aftermath of the BJP’s parliamentarian Ramesh Bidhuri’s communal slurs against him in parliament. Not long after, BSP supremo expelled Ali, for opposing the expulsion of Trinamool Congress MP Mahua Moitra from the Parliament. This did not go well with Muslim community.
The SP, which has emerged as the third largest party in the country after BJP and the Congress, dominated the state across its length and breadth. It has gained seats across UP, by winning seats in western, central and eastern parts of the state. The party has also gained seats in Bundelkhand, which was electorally dominated by the BJP in the last two Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019.
When nobody gave them a chance, the combine made heavy in-roads into the state which has been a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bastion in recent times, and made a sizable dent to BJP’s image, especially that of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The fightback is all the more fascinating given that the BJP was finally able to deliver its long-standing Hindutva agenda of Ram Mandir.
In hindsight it seems, the anti-incumbency against BJP have peaked this election season as people were facing lot of hardships. There was massive unemployment, price rise, law and order issues and nothing was done to fulfil the lofty promises made by the BJP.
A lot of BJP leaders made statements favouring changes in the Constitution. There attacks on Muslims, women and the Dalit. The SP and the INDIA bloc fought on these issues.
SP’s ticket distribution focusing on non-Yadav OBCs also might have been a game changer. SP gave 27 tickets to non-Yadav OBCs; 11 to upper castes, including four Brahmins, two Thakurs, two Vaishyas, and one Khatri; and four to Muslims, besides 15 Dalit candidates in the SC-reserved constituencies. Only 5 tickets were given to Yadavs, that too from party supremo Akhilesh Yadav’s family.
This could implicate a possible percentage vote shift of Thakurs, Pandeys and others upper caste Hindus from BJP to SP. In 2014, the SP had contested 78 seats, and fielded 12 Yadav candidates, including four from the party’s “first family.”
Akhilesh Yadav took a flexible approach in several constituencies, changing candidates depending on feedback from local cadre and local caste equation.
Another major shift of votes might have come from the Dalits which have finally dumped the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) as protector of their rights. Consolidation of Muslim votes might also have been another factor for the grand come of SP-Congress combine. However, on this account, it was more to do with BSP’s failure rather than SP’s good work.
Muslim votes have been SP’s strong hold in recently years. Traditionally the Muslim votes have shifted from Mayawati’s BSP to SP, post Babri Masjid demolition in 1992. Since then, the trust deficit between BSP and the Muslim community has gone in the wrong direction over the years.
Mayawati’s differences with Naseemuddin Siddiqui, a prominent Muslim face of the BSP had a negative impact on the Muslim community. Siddiqui played a pivotal role in bringing Muslims close to the pro-Dalit party BSP in 2007.
Recently another instant which hampered relation of the party with the community, is the Danish Ali episode. Ali received empathy in the aftermath of the BJP’s parliamentarian Ramesh Bidhuri’s communal slurs against him in parliament. Not long after, BSP supremo expelled Ali, for opposing the expulsion of Trinamool Congress MP Mahua Moitra from the Parliament. This did not go well with Muslim community.
The SP, which has emerged as the third largest party in the country after BJP and the Congress, dominated the state across its length and breadth. It has gained seats across UP, by winning seats in western, central and eastern parts of the state. The party has also gained seats in Bundelkhand, which was electorally dominated by the BJP in the last two Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019.
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