The Haryana poll outcome on October 8 has left political analysts, journalists, and leaders across various parties astonished. Despite significant public discontent toward the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP)—stemming from issues such as the farmers' and wrestlers' protests and a decade of anti-incumbency—the party is set to secure its third consecutive government with a commanding majority, marking a historic first in the state's electoral history.

According to the latest data from the Election Commission, the BJP is projected to win 47 out of Haryana's 90 assembly constituencies, matching its tally from 2014, when it first took power in the state.

The Congress party faces a shocking defeat in Haryana, placing Bhupinder Singh Hooda's position in jeopardy. Hooda has long been a prominent figure in the Congress, notably capable of resisting the high command. Speculation had suggested he might pass the leadership to his son mid-term as part of a generational shift.

Hooda’s campaign strategy centered around his persona, highlighting his dominance within the party for over two decades, dating back to 2005 when he outmanoeuvred the powerful Bhajan Lal to become Chief Minister. With strong backing from the influential Jat community, Hooda cultivated an environment in the Haryana Congress where loyalty was paramount; one could either be a supporter or a detractor, but not both.

This dominance allowed Hooda to weather multiple controversies during his two terms, including internal party disputes and allegations of corruption and favouritism.

The BJP’s unexpected victory in 2014, when it was still considered a weak contender in Haryana, was a significant setback for Hooda. However, in the years that followed, the Congress seemingly relinquished control back to him.

In 2016, Hooda was implicated in the shocking defeat of R.K. Anand—an official candidate and loyalist of the party’s high command—in the Rajya Sabha elections.

Four years later, he was a prominent figure among the Group of 23 senior leaders who urged then-party president Sonia Gandhi to implement reforms within the party structure.

Despite setbacks, Hooda's influence remained unchallenged. In 2022, the Congress replaced Kumari Selja, Hooda's rival, with his close aide, Udai Bhan, as the state president. Hooda took on the role of Leader of the Congress Legislature Party (CLP), further solidifying his control over the state unit.

Selja’s dissatisfaction has been palpable since then, with other dissenting figures leaving the party. Ahead of the assembly elections, Kiran Choudhry, a significant leader, defected to the BJP after being denied a ticket, resulting in her daughter Shruti winning a seat on the BJP ticket by 14,257 votes.

Out of the 89 candidates fielded by the Congress, a staggering 72 were considered Hooda loyalists, while his rivals Selja and Randeep Singh Surjewala managed to secure tickets for only a handful of supporters. Selja received just nine tickets, and Surjewala even fewer.

Following the Congress's apparent loss, tensions have surfaced within the party. Selja publicly expressed disappointment with the results, emphasizing the need for introspection on why voters hesitated to support the Congress. Her comments hinted at a need for change, suggesting accountability for those responsible for maintaining the party's balance.

As of now, Hooda has not publicly addressed the situation. In contrast, BJP leader Nayab Saini attributed the party's success to Modi, highlighting his welfare policies designed to benefit all segments of society, which played a crucial role in the victory.

The writer is an independent journalist. The views are personal.