Analysis

'Batenge Toh Katenge': Yogi's Polarisation Strategy Fuels BJP+ Success in UP Bypolls

The bypoll success comes as a much-needed boost for Adityanath after the BJP’s underwhelming performance in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.

'Batenge Toh Katenge': Yogi's Polarisation Strategy Fuels BJP+ Success in UP Bypolls

UP CM Yogi Adityanath with party leaders after BJP's bypoll victory. Photo: X/@myogiadityanath

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance, led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, secured a decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh bypolls, winning seven out of nine seats, including a surprising landslide in the Muslim-dominated Kundarki constituency of Moradabad.

The Opposition, led by the Samajwadi Party (SP), had demanded a re-poll in Kundarki, alleging large-scale voter suppression targeted at Muslims, but the BJP emerged victorious with an overwhelming 77% of the vote.

The BJP retained its five seats from 2022 and snatched two more from the SP, signalling a strong endorsement of Adityanath’s polarizing campaign strategy centered on the slogan "Batenge toh katenge" (will be slaughtered if divided).

Adityanath projected the results as validation of his Hindu consolidation strategy, which sought to unite Hindus across caste lines against the SP’s efforts to bring together marginalized castes and Muslims under the PDA (Pichda Dalit Alpsankhyak) alliance.

Adityanath celebrated the BJP-NDA's triumph, attributing the success to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership.

In a post on X, he wrote, "The victory of the BJP-NDA in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly by-elections is a testament to the people's unwavering faith in the successful leadership and guidance of the esteemed Prime Minister Shri @narendramodi ji. This victory is the result of the security, good governance, and public welfare policies of the double-engine government and the tireless hard work of dedicated workers."

SP chief Akhilesh Yadav alleged widespread misuse of administrative power during polling, calling the elections the "most distorted form of electoral politics."

Yadav and other SP leaders accused the BJP of intimidating voters, particularly in Muslim-majority areas, and demanded re-polls in Kundarki, Meerapur, and Shishamau. Despite these allegations, the BJP managed to win Kundarki convincingly, with its candidate Ramveer Singh defeating SP’s Mohammad Rizwan by 1.45 lakh votes.

Rizwan’s vote share dropped dramatically to just 11%, compared to 42% in 2017 when he defeated Singh by over 10,000 votes. The result in Kundarki raised questions about voter turnout and the effectiveness of the SP’s strategy in a constituency with a long history of Muslim representation.

By-Election Dynamics

The bypolls saw the BJP dominate key constituencies, including Ghaziabad and Khair (Aligarh), where it secured comfortable wins. It also made significant inroads in SP strongholds like Katehari (Ambedkar Nagar) and gave tough competition in Karhal (Mainpuri) and Shishamau (Kanpur).

The SP managed to retain Karhal and Shishamau, albeit with reduced margins compared to the 2022 assembly elections. In Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar), the SP’s loss was attributed to vote-splitting caused by the AIMIM and Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshiram), whose candidates together polled more votes than the SP’s margin of defeat.

Adityanath campaigned extensively for the bypolls, holding 13 rallies and two roadshows across the nine constituencies. His focus included Kundarki, Karhal, and Meerapur, where he aimed to strengthen the BJP’s prospects in challenging demographics. Through government programs before the elections, Adityanath distributed tablets, loans, and job appointment letters in the targeted districts and inaugurated development projects worth Rs 5,755 crore.

The bypoll success comes as a much-needed boost for Adityanath after the BJP’s underwhelming performance in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.

The results not only consolidate his leadership within the party but also quell internal dissent, including criticism from his deputy, Keshav Prasad Maurya, who had previously emphasized the primacy of the party organization over the government.

The bypoll results highlight the BJP’s ability to consolidate Hindu votes and counter opposition strategies in a politically charged environment.

While allegations of voter suppression and administrative bias marred the elections, the BJP’s decisive victory strengthens Adityanath’s position and sets the tone for upcoming electoral battles in the state.

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