The Crossbill News Desk
The southwest monsoon is likely to make its onset over Kerala within the next two to three days, according to the latest forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), raising expectations for the start of the country’s crucial rainy season after a brief delay.
The weather department said atmospheric conditions have become favourable for the further advancement of the monsoon across parts of southern India and adjoining seas.
“Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the next two to three days,” said the IMD, reported news agency PTI.
The IMD added that the monsoon is also expected to advance into additional areas of the Bay of Bengal, including parts of the southwest, west-central, east-central and northeast regions, as well as the remaining parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal during the same period.
The latest forecast comes after the weather department’s earlier projection that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala by May 26 did not materialise. The onset over Kerala is traditionally expected around June 1 and is considered a key indicator for the progression of rainfall across the country.
While forecasting the monsoon’s advance, the IMD has also revised its seasonal rainfall outlook. In its updated assessment issued on May 29, the department projected that rainfall during the 2026 monsoon season is likely to remain below normal.
According to the forecast, India is expected to receive rainfall amounting to about 90% of its Long Period Average (LPA) during the season. LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded over a specific region and period, usually calculated over 30 to 50 years.
Based on rainfall data collected between 1971 and 2020, the LPA for the country as a whole stands at 87 centimetres. The IMD classifies a monsoon season receiving less than 90% of the LPA as “deficient”.
The weather department has attributed the possibility of below-normal rainfall this year, in part, to the emergence of El Nino conditions, a climatic phenomenon that often influences monsoon patterns and can suppress rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
With the monsoon now expected to arrive in Kerala shortly, attention will turn to its pace of advancement across the country and whether rainfall distribution remains consistent amid concerns over a potentially deficient season.
The weather department said atmospheric conditions have become favourable for the further advancement of the monsoon across parts of southern India and adjoining seas.
“Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the next two to three days,” said the IMD, reported news agency PTI.
The IMD added that the monsoon is also expected to advance into additional areas of the Bay of Bengal, including parts of the southwest, west-central, east-central and northeast regions, as well as the remaining parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal during the same period.
The latest forecast comes after the weather department’s earlier projection that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala by May 26 did not materialise. The onset over Kerala is traditionally expected around June 1 and is considered a key indicator for the progression of rainfall across the country.
While forecasting the monsoon’s advance, the IMD has also revised its seasonal rainfall outlook. In its updated assessment issued on May 29, the department projected that rainfall during the 2026 monsoon season is likely to remain below normal.
According to the forecast, India is expected to receive rainfall amounting to about 90% of its Long Period Average (LPA) during the season. LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded over a specific region and period, usually calculated over 30 to 50 years.
Based on rainfall data collected between 1971 and 2020, the LPA for the country as a whole stands at 87 centimetres. The IMD classifies a monsoon season receiving less than 90% of the LPA as “deficient”.
The weather department has attributed the possibility of below-normal rainfall this year, in part, to the emergence of El Nino conditions, a climatic phenomenon that often influences monsoon patterns and can suppress rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
With the monsoon now expected to arrive in Kerala shortly, attention will turn to its pace of advancement across the country and whether rainfall distribution remains consistent amid concerns over a potentially deficient season.
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