The Crossbill Team
India’s carbon emissions are projected to increase by 4.4% in 2026, significantly higher than the average annual growth recorded over the past decade, even as global fossil fuel emissions are expected to register a marginal decline, according to the latest Global Carbon Budget released on Tuesday (November 10).
The 2026 Global Carbon Budget, published as a pre-print at the ongoing 31st Conference of Parties (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, by the Global Carbon Project, estimates that global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and land-use changes will reach 43.3 billion tonnes this year, compared with 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.
The report projects that fossil fuel emissions alone will account for 38.2 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2026. Although emissions from oil are expected to decline by 1.9%, largely due to the energy crisis triggered by the Iran conflict and disruptions to global oil supplies following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the overall emissions trajectory remains a cause for concern.
The research suggests that the geopolitical disruption has also accelerated the expansion of solar and wind power, contributing to the decline in fossil fuel emissions in several parts of the world.
The annual assessment has been prepared by an international research team involving the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Centre for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich (LMU), the Alfred-Wegener-Institut and more than 90 other institutions. The Global Carbon Project, a collaboration involving Future Earth and the World Climate Research Programme, releases the assessment during the annual United Nations climate summits.
The report also highlights the increasingly narrow window available to prevent global temperatures from exceeding the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. The remaining carbon budget is estimated at just 150 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate.
Meanwhile, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are projected to reach 427.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2026, approximately 54% above pre-industrial levels.
While several major economies are expected to record a decline in emissions, India's projected increase stands out.
India Bucks Global Trend
India's carbon emissions are forecast to grow by 4.4% in 2026, exceeding the country's average annual growth rate of 3.5% over the previous decade.
In contrast, China's emissions are expected to fall by 0.9%, following two years of relatively low growth. The decline is largely attributed to a substantial reduction in oil-related emissions, although coal emissions are projected to increase marginally by 0.3%. At the same time, renewable electricity generation continues to expand rapidly.
China accounts for around 32% of global fossil fuel emissions but is also leading the deployment of clean energy technologies and the expansion of natural carbon sinks through reforestation. According to the assessment, China accounts for half of the global emissions avoided through the expansion of renewable energy and electric vehicles. It also records the largest carbon uptake through reforestation and afforestation.
The United States is expected to register a 1.3% reduction in emissions, primarily because of lower coal consumption. Coal emissions had risen last year amid higher natural gas prices and colder weather. Emissions in the European Union are projected to decline by 1.5%, while Japan is expected to record a 1% fall. The rest of the world is forecast to see a 0.7% reduction.
Oil is expected to account for the largest share of the global decline, reflecting higher prices and constraints on international supplies. Emissions from international aviation and shipping are also projected to fall by 1%, with reduced aviation activity in West Asia contributing to the decline.
Land and Ocean Carbon Sinks Under Pressure
The study also examined the ability of natural carbon sinks, particularly land and oceans, to absorb atmospheric CO2. It found that the land carbon sink has recovered to levels recorded before the significant weakening caused by the 2023-24 El Niño weather pattern. However, the powerful El Niño conditions expected in 2026 could significantly affect the absorption capacity of natural ecosystems over the coming year.
Global emissions from land-use changes, including deforestation, are projected to rise to 5.1 billion tonnes of CO2 this year. The increase is largely linked to peat fires, which are almost entirely caused by human activities, and forest degradation in Southeast Asia. Drier conditions associated with the onset of El Niño have further aggravated the situation.
Despite the projected increase this year, total emissions from land-use changes have declined over the past decade. Permanent deforestation continues to generate around 3.8 billion tonnes of CO2 annually, based on the 2016-25 average. Reforestation and afforestation offset approximately half of these emissions through permanent carbon removal.
The report notes that overall CO2 emissions, combining fossil fuel emissions and land-use changes, have grown at an average annual rate of 0.3% over the past decade, substantially slower than the 1.7% recorded during the preceding decade.
China, the European Union and the United States account for the largest carbon removals through reforestation and afforestation, together absorbing around 0.8 billion tonnes of CO2 annually. Brazil, Russia and Indonesia also record substantial carbon uptake through these measures, although their gains are outweighed by emissions resulting from deforestation.
The contribution of newer carbon removal technologies remains negligible. Current levels of novel Carbon Dioxide Removal, excluding conventional methods such as reforestation, offset less than 30 minutes of annual fossil CO2 emissions.
Renewable Expansion Yet to Reverse Global Emissions
The assessment points out that although global energy demand continues to increase, nearly two-thirds of the additional demand is now being met through solar and wind power and electric vehicles. However, the expansion of clean energy remains insufficient to ensure a sustained reduction in global fossil fuel emissions.
“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, who led the study.
“The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. While renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline,” he said.
Glen Peters, Research Professor at the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research, cautioned that a temporary fall in emissions should not be mistaken for a lasting reversal of the global trend.
A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change, commented Glen Peters, Research Professor at the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research, in a statement.
“Accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles are pushing emissions down in dozens of countries, and slowing emissions growth in many more, but the changes are not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions,” he said.
Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, highlighted the contribution of clean energy technologies to reducing emissions across different regions.
“Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions,” said Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences.
“Solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expanding rapidly, led by China. Countries on every continent are decreasing their emissions while growing their economies. A further acceleration could turn the tide on global emissions within a few years,” he added.
The findings underline the growing gap between the pace of renewable energy adoption and the scale of emissions reductions required to meet international climate targets.
While clean technologies are beginning to alter the global emissions trajectory, the report warns that a temporary decline, particularly one driven by geopolitical disruptions, cannot substitute for a sustained transition away from fossil fuels.
The 2026 Global Carbon Budget, published as a pre-print at the ongoing 31st Conference of Parties (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, by the Global Carbon Project, estimates that global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and land-use changes will reach 43.3 billion tonnes this year, compared with 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.
The report projects that fossil fuel emissions alone will account for 38.2 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2026. Although emissions from oil are expected to decline by 1.9%, largely due to the energy crisis triggered by the Iran conflict and disruptions to global oil supplies following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the overall emissions trajectory remains a cause for concern.
The research suggests that the geopolitical disruption has also accelerated the expansion of solar and wind power, contributing to the decline in fossil fuel emissions in several parts of the world.
The annual assessment has been prepared by an international research team involving the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Centre for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich (LMU), the Alfred-Wegener-Institut and more than 90 other institutions. The Global Carbon Project, a collaboration involving Future Earth and the World Climate Research Programme, releases the assessment during the annual United Nations climate summits.
The report also highlights the increasingly narrow window available to prevent global temperatures from exceeding the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. The remaining carbon budget is estimated at just 150 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate.
Meanwhile, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are projected to reach 427.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2026, approximately 54% above pre-industrial levels.
While several major economies are expected to record a decline in emissions, India's projected increase stands out.
India Bucks Global Trend
India's carbon emissions are forecast to grow by 4.4% in 2026, exceeding the country's average annual growth rate of 3.5% over the previous decade.
In contrast, China's emissions are expected to fall by 0.9%, following two years of relatively low growth. The decline is largely attributed to a substantial reduction in oil-related emissions, although coal emissions are projected to increase marginally by 0.3%. At the same time, renewable electricity generation continues to expand rapidly.
China accounts for around 32% of global fossil fuel emissions but is also leading the deployment of clean energy technologies and the expansion of natural carbon sinks through reforestation. According to the assessment, China accounts for half of the global emissions avoided through the expansion of renewable energy and electric vehicles. It also records the largest carbon uptake through reforestation and afforestation.
The United States is expected to register a 1.3% reduction in emissions, primarily because of lower coal consumption. Coal emissions had risen last year amid higher natural gas prices and colder weather. Emissions in the European Union are projected to decline by 1.5%, while Japan is expected to record a 1% fall. The rest of the world is forecast to see a 0.7% reduction.
Oil is expected to account for the largest share of the global decline, reflecting higher prices and constraints on international supplies. Emissions from international aviation and shipping are also projected to fall by 1%, with reduced aviation activity in West Asia contributing to the decline.
Land and Ocean Carbon Sinks Under Pressure
The study also examined the ability of natural carbon sinks, particularly land and oceans, to absorb atmospheric CO2. It found that the land carbon sink has recovered to levels recorded before the significant weakening caused by the 2023-24 El Niño weather pattern. However, the powerful El Niño conditions expected in 2026 could significantly affect the absorption capacity of natural ecosystems over the coming year.
Global emissions from land-use changes, including deforestation, are projected to rise to 5.1 billion tonnes of CO2 this year. The increase is largely linked to peat fires, which are almost entirely caused by human activities, and forest degradation in Southeast Asia. Drier conditions associated with the onset of El Niño have further aggravated the situation.
Despite the projected increase this year, total emissions from land-use changes have declined over the past decade. Permanent deforestation continues to generate around 3.8 billion tonnes of CO2 annually, based on the 2016-25 average. Reforestation and afforestation offset approximately half of these emissions through permanent carbon removal.
The report notes that overall CO2 emissions, combining fossil fuel emissions and land-use changes, have grown at an average annual rate of 0.3% over the past decade, substantially slower than the 1.7% recorded during the preceding decade.
China, the European Union and the United States account for the largest carbon removals through reforestation and afforestation, together absorbing around 0.8 billion tonnes of CO2 annually. Brazil, Russia and Indonesia also record substantial carbon uptake through these measures, although their gains are outweighed by emissions resulting from deforestation.
The contribution of newer carbon removal technologies remains negligible. Current levels of novel Carbon Dioxide Removal, excluding conventional methods such as reforestation, offset less than 30 minutes of annual fossil CO2 emissions.
Renewable Expansion Yet to Reverse Global Emissions
The assessment points out that although global energy demand continues to increase, nearly two-thirds of the additional demand is now being met through solar and wind power and electric vehicles. However, the expansion of clean energy remains insufficient to ensure a sustained reduction in global fossil fuel emissions.
“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, who led the study.
“The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. While renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline,” he said.
Glen Peters, Research Professor at the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research, cautioned that a temporary fall in emissions should not be mistaken for a lasting reversal of the global trend.
A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change, commented Glen Peters, Research Professor at the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research, in a statement.
“Accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles are pushing emissions down in dozens of countries, and slowing emissions growth in many more, but the changes are not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions,” he said.
Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, highlighted the contribution of clean energy technologies to reducing emissions across different regions.
“Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions,” said Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences.
“Solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expanding rapidly, led by China. Countries on every continent are decreasing their emissions while growing their economies. A further acceleration could turn the tide on global emissions within a few years,” he added.
The findings underline the growing gap between the pace of renewable energy adoption and the scale of emissions reductions required to meet international climate targets.
While clean technologies are beginning to alter the global emissions trajectory, the report warns that a temporary decline, particularly one driven by geopolitical disruptions, cannot substitute for a sustained transition away from fossil fuels.
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