Economy

Russian Crude Supply to India May Decline Despite US Waiver Extension

Oil from Russia to India exceeded 2 million barrels per day (bpd) for four of the last 10 weeks, of which the Eurasian country had loaded 1.8 million bpd in April, and 1.6 million bpd in March.

Russian Crude Supply to India May Decline Despite US Waiver Extension

Representative image of Indian oil tankers. Photo: X

India’s crude oil import strategy is facing renewed uncertainty amid the ongoing global energy crisis and volatility triggered by the conflict in West Asia.

Reports indicate that supplies of discounted Russian crude to India may witness a decline despite the United States extending its sanctions waiver for another 30 days, as refiners remain cautious over revised conditions attached to the exemption.

According to a Business Standard report, oil from Russia to India exceeded 2 million barrels per day (bpd) for four of the last 10 weeks, of which the Eurasian country had loaded 1.8 million bpd in April, and 1.6 million bpd in March.

However, in May, the load dropped sharply to below 700,000 bpd due to uncertainty over US sanctions. Per the report, while the Donald Trump administration’s latest waiver appears like a relief, local refiners say that it may not help them much, given the change in sanction terms.

The new order, dated May 18, states that “sale, delivery, or offloading of crude oil or petroleum products of Russian Federation origin loaded on any vessel, including vessels blocked under the above-listed authorities, on or before 12:01 am April 17.2026, are authorised through 12:01 am June 17.2026.”

Some officials told the daily that most of the cargo loaded on April 17 has already been sold in anticipation of renewed sanctions as the previous exemption ended on May 17. Previous exemptions, they further noted, also carried forward the loading date by a month, which in this case would have been May 17, and not April 17 – the previous date.

Overall, the volume of India’s imports of crude oil fell 4.3% in April, amid the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while the value of imports soared about 50% over the comparable period last year, according to provisional government data, The Hindu reported.

Meanwhile, Economic Times reported that Venezuela emerged as the third-largest supplier of crude to India in the month of May, surpassing Saudi Arabia and the US.

It is reportedly due to Indian refiners, like Reliance Industries, seeking more cost-effective, heavy crude options that Venezuela has. However, the news also comes amid Rubio’s unusual announcement of the Venezuela president’s upcoming travel to India, amid the US’s push for more crude purchase from the South American country.

Even as officials have maintained that India’s energy security remains intact and crude supplies have been tied up adequately, the sharp fluctuations in sourcing patterns reflect the pressure being exerted by geopolitical tensions, sanctions uncertainty and rising global fuel prices on the country’s import-dependent energy market.

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