India’s rice market is witnessing a sharp rise in prices, with rates of several varieties increasing by more than 10% in recent weeks as traders and millers face tighter paddy availability between crop cycles. The situation has also raised concerns over the supply outlook for the next harvest amid a deficient monsoon.

Premium non-basmati varieties including Sona Masuri, Ponni and Masuri have recorded notable increases, The Hindu BusinessLine reported.

Swarna rice, for instance, has risen to Rs 34 per kg ex-mill from around Rs 30, marking an increase of more than 13% over the past few weeks.

The price rise comes even as the government has projected record paddy production for the 2025-26 crop year. Market participants, however, have attributed the recent firming of prices to the quantity of paddy currently available with millers and the timing of arrivals in the market.

M. Madan Prakash, president of the Tamil Nadu Agri Commodities Exporters Association, told BusinessLine that millers were reporting a slight shortage of paddy. Rajesh Jain Paharia, a New Delhi-based exporter, attributed the increase primarily to the supply-demand situation.

The market is also facing a seasonal gap between crop arrivals. Supplies from the zaid and rabi crops have largely wound down, while the next kharif crop is not expected to reach markets in significant quantities before October. This has left traders dependent on existing stocks during the intervening period.

Adding to the cost pressures is the government's decision to increase the minimum support price for common paddy. The MSP for the 2026-27 crop has been raised to Rs 2,441 per quintal from Rs 2,369.

With the next major kharif arrivals still some months away, the domestic rice market is likely to remain sensitive to paddy availability, weather conditions and the pace of fresh crop arrivals.

The deficient monsoon has added another layer of uncertainty to the supply outlook for the coming season.