Indian households are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the inflation outlook, with expectations of price rises over the next 12 months reaching 10 per cent in September, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s latest survey.

The increase from 9.4 per cent in July reflects mounting concerns over household expenses, particularly food prices, despite the central bank’s monetary tightening measures, The Economic Times reported.

The RBI’s September 2026 Inflation Expectations Survey of Households found that the median inflation expectation for the next three months rose to 9.9 per cent from 9.2 per cent in July, an increase of 70 basis points. The one-year-ahead expectation climbed by 60 basis points to 10 per cent.

Confirming the trend, the RBI stated, "Households’ median inflation expectations for the next three months and one year rose by 70 bps and 60 bps to 9.9 per cent and 10.0 per cent, respectively."

The findings come after the Monetary Policy Committee raised the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 per cent on October 7. Inflation expectations are closely watched by policymakers because they can influence household consumption, wage negotiations and broader economic activity.

The survey also recorded an increase in households’ assessment of current price pressures. Median perceived inflation rose to 8.4 per cent in September, up from 7.8 per cent in July, marking a rise of 60 basis points.

Expectations of further price increases were widespread among respondents. As many as 88.9 per cent anticipated general inflation rising over the coming year, while 67.4 per cent expected prices to increase at a faster pace than they are currently. For the next three months, 81.9 per cent expected general prices to rise, compared with 80.7 per cent in the July survey.

Food prices remained a major source of concern. The survey found that 84.9 per cent of respondents expected food prices to increase over the next three months, while 61.6 per cent anticipated food inflation accelerating beyond its current pace.

The central bank observed that "The proportion of respondents anticipating a rise in general inflation has inched up for both the time horizons."

The survey results indicate that households continue to anticipate significant price pressures even as borrowing costs rise. However, the RBI clarified that the 10 per cent figure represents the median inflation expectation among surveyed households and should not be interpreted as the central bank’s official inflation forecast.

Conducted between September 10 and September 20 across 19 major cities, the survey covered 5,987 respondents.