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US Tariff Uncertainty May Slow India-US Trade Deal Talks

Recent judicial interventions in the US have once again cast doubt over the durability of Washington’s tariff regime, raising questions in New Delhi about committing to long-term trade concessions.

US Tariff Uncertainty May Slow India-US Trade Deal Talks

Indian PM Narendra Modi met US President Donald Trump at the White House on February 14. Image: X/@narendramodi

Fresh legal uncertainty surrounding tariff measures introduced during the Donald Trump presidency may prompt India to reassess the pace of its ongoing bilateral trade negotiations with the United States.

Recent judicial interventions in the US have once again cast doubt over the durability of Washington’s tariff regime, raising questions in New Delhi about committing to long-term trade concessions, reported Financial Express.

In the latest development, a US Court of International Trade delivered a 2-1 ruling on Thursday declaring that the Trump administration’s 10% temporary global tariffs imposed above Most Favoured Nation (MFN) rates were not justified under a 1970s trade statute.

The court, however, limited relief only to two private importers and the State of Washington, meaning most trading partners—including India—continue to face the levies. The additional tariff, introduced after earlier measures were struck down, is expected to remain in force until July.

This follows a significant February 20 verdict by the US Supreme Court, which invalidated Trump’s earlier reciprocal tariff regime targeting multiple countries. In response, the administration replaced those duties with a uniform 10% surcharge, adding further uncertainty to the global trade environment.

“The continuing uncertainty around US tariff policy, with major Trump-era tariffs repeatedly struck down by courts, makes any long-term trade commitments by India difficult to justify,” thinktank GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava told the newspaper. 
He added that India should wait until the United States develops a more stable and legally reliable trade system before concluding the BTA.

“At present, the US is also not prepared to reduce its standard MFN tariffs, while expecting India to lower or eliminate its MFN duties across most sectors. Under such conditions, any trade deal risks becoming one-sided, with India offering permanent market access concessions without receiving any meaningful tariff benefits in return,” Srivastava said.

Trade experts view the ruling as having wider implications for global commerce. Shishir Priyadarshi, President, Chintan Research Foundation, former Director, WTO, said that the federal court’s ruling is a crucial reminder that Trump’s global tariffs are in violation to the rules of the violated WTO rules, and their striking down is a positive signal for multilateral trade norms.

“However, with the decision held in abeyance, uncertainty lingers. We must remain vigilant, as the US may still seek new avenues to circumvent the ruling,” Priyadarshi said.

Despite the turbulence, India and the United States have continued discussions toward an interim trade arrangement. Negotiators from both sides are currently working on drafting the agreement text following a mutually agreed framework.

An Indian delegation led by chief negotiator Darpan Jain visited Washington from April 20 to April 23, where talks covered Market Access, Non-Tariff Measures, Technical Barriers to Trade, Customs and Trade Facilitation, Investment Promotion, Economic Security Alignment and Digital trade.

The interim pact was originally expected to be concluded by March. However, the Supreme Court’s February decision forced Washington to reassess its tariff strategy, delaying progress and complicating negotiations. 
Meanwhile, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal reiterated the government’s broader trade ambitions.

“The Free Trade Agreement with New Zealand is the seventh free trade agreement that I am signing in the last three and a half years. Two more to go very soon in the next few months with the European Union and the United States of America,” the minister said at the signing of the India-New Zealand FTA.

The latest trade court judgment noted that the Trump administration had exceeded congressional authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, striking down the contested tariffs less than 50 days after their introduction.

As legal challenges continue to reshape US trade policy, Indian policymakers appear likely to proceed cautiously, weighing strategic economic engagement against an evolving and uncertain regulatory landscape.

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