The Democrats’ gains in the US midterm elections may have weakened President Donald Trump politically, but they are unlikely to translate into an immediate shift in Washington’s trade and foreign policy towards India.

With the White House retaining considerable executive authority over both areas, New Delhi may continue to face uncertainty over the proposed bilateral trade agreement and other contentious issues.

Trump’s initial response to the electoral setback suggests little willingness to acknowledge it as a verdict on his administration. He has maintained that he can still veto legislation passed by the two chambers of Congress, sharing an image of a red MAGA-style cap bearing the word “Veto” in bold. 

Early assessments of the results broadly agree that although Trump has been weakened, he retains substantial executive powers, including the authority to block Democratic legislation.

His next moves remain difficult to predict. With Democrats preparing to challenge the administration and Trump showing little inclination to retreat, there are concerns that the President could respond by exercising his executive powers even more aggressively. The possibility of a more unilateral approach has added to the uncertainty surrounding the political consequences of the midterm results.

The Democrats’ immediate priorities are largely domestic, but their plans could have implications for international trade. 

According to Time magazine, the party’s lawmakers “see repealing the tariffs and ending the war as their two biggest opportunities to address the country’s economic downturn”. However, how far they can advance these objectives while Trump retains executive control remains uncertain.

Congressional scrutiny is also expected to increase over the executive agencies implementing the administration’s policies, including the rules governing H1B visas.

Before the elections, Thomas J. Duesterberg of the Washington-based Hudson Institute had noted that, anticipating stronger representation in Congress, Democratic leaders had introduced legislation seeking to repeal several laws invoked by Trump. These included the widely used Section 301 authority, which the administration has relied on to justify trade measures against countries accused of “unfair trade practices”.

The provision has also emerged as a major sticking point in India-US trade negotiations. External affairs minister S. Jaishankar had identified Section 301 of the US Trade Act, 1974, which empowers Washington to investigate foreign trade practices and impose retaliatory tariffs or restrictions, as an issue holding up the agreement.

India had not issued an official response to the midterm results until late in the evening. Asked at the ministry’s bi-weekly briefing about New Delhi’s assessment of the elections and their possible impact on bilateral ties, spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India would comment after the electoral process was over, noting that elections were part and parcel of a democracy.

Among trade experts, however, there are differing assessments of whether the Democratic gains could improve India’s negotiating position.

Biswajit Dhar, former professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University and a trade economist, believes the setback could create an opportunity for New Delhi to secure a more balanced agreement, while placing some limits on Trump’s aggressive tariff policies.

“India has to show political maturity and deal with the US on our terms. If we want a balanced trade deal, this is the time to do it,” Dhar told The Telegraph Online.

He argued that congressional opposition could constrain Trump’s indiscriminate use of tariffs to pressure countries such as India.

Ajay Srivastava, founder of trade intelligence firm GTRI, offered a different assessment, arguing that the electoral setback would not alter the protectionist direction of US trade policy. Instead, Trump could step up pressure on India to secure a quick agreement and demonstrate that he remains in control.

India and the US reached an understanding on February 6, following which both sides have been working towards a trade agreement and an improvement in relations after ties deteriorated last year. US officials have recently expressed confidence that the deal is close to completion.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, however, voiced doubts last month about the agreement being finalised in the near future.

Strategic thinker Brahma Chellaney, meanwhile, cautioned against assuming that Democratic control of Congress would necessarily curb the President’s authority.

In a post on X, he argued that although an opposition-controlled legislature could use its control over federal spending and congressional committees to investigate the administration, the President retained much greater unilateral powers in foreign policy and trade than in domestic affairs.

“An opposition-controlled legislature wields the power of the purse, as Congress controls federal spending. Control of congressional committees will also allow Democrats to bring scandals involving Trump and his family into the spotlight through subpoenas and aggressive hearings,” Chellaney wrote.
 

Trump’s Unchecked Presidency May Linger The Democratic Party tsunami, triggered by American voters’ stunning repudiation of Trump and his policies, raises the question of whether the president will change his governing style or persist with disruption as his governing creed. An opposition-controlled legislature wields the power of the purse, as Congress controls federal spending. Control of congressional committees will also allow Democrats to bring scandals involving Trump and his family into the spotlight through subpoenas and aggressive hearings. The president, however, enjoys vastly greater unilateral authority over foreign policy and trade than over domestic policy. Moreover, electoral repudiation and congressional opposition do not necessarily translate into effective restraints on presidential power in the U.S. A second-term president, with no further election to contest, may prove particularly difficult for Congress to rein in.

— Dr. Brahma Chellaney (@Chellaney) November 4, 2026

“The President, however, enjoys vastly greater unilateral authority over foreign policy and trade than over domestic policy. Moreover, electoral repudiation and congressional opposition do not necessarily translate into effective restraints on presidential power in the US. A second-term President, with no further election to contest, may prove particularly difficult for Congress to rein in,” he added.

The electoral setback may therefore complicate Trump’s domestic agenda without necessarily changing the direction of his policies towards India. For New Delhi, the immediate challenge will be to navigate the continuing uncertainty over tariffs, Russian oil imports and the stalled trade negotiations.