The three major cotton-producing states of North India—Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan—have experienced a 43% decline in the arrival of kapas (unginned cotton) by November 30 this year, compared to the same period last year, as per a report published in The Indian Express.

The sharp drop has raised concerns throughout the cotton supply chain. Farmers, anticipating higher prices, have been holding back their produce, while ginners and spinners are struggling with raw material shortages, particularly in Punjab.

According to the report, experts attribute the low arrivals to several factors: reduced acreage, lower yields, and farmers delaying sales, expecting prices to rise in the coming months. Cotton prices currently range from Rs 6,250 to Rs 8,340 per quintal, with most of the crop being sold close to the Minimum Support Price (MSP).

The cotton arrival season in North India starts on October 1 and runs through September 30 of the following year, with the majority of arrivals taking place by November. Cotton picking begins in September and typically ends by November.

This year, the combined production of kapas in Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan has reached about 54 lakh quintals (around 9.75 lakh bales), compared to 86.15 lakh quintals (17.23 lakh bales) during the same period last year.

In Punjab, arrivals were the lowest, with only 1.57 lakh quintals of kapas arriving by November end, down from 5.40 lakh quintals in the previous year. In Haryana, arrivals were 13.75 lakh quintals, and in Rajasthan, 32.50 lakh quintals, compared to 24.25 lakh quintals and 56.50 lakh quintals, respectively, during the same period in 2023, the report stated.

In addition, the area under cotton cultivation has declined significantly by around 5.58 lakh hectares in these states this year. Punjab saw the steepest drop, with the area under cotton cultivation halving from 2.14 lakh hectares to just 1 lakh hectare. Rajasthan’s cotton area decreased by 34%, from 10.04 lakh hectares to 6.62 lakh hectares, while Haryana’s cotton area shrank by 17%, from 5.78 lakh hectares to 4.76 lakh hectares.

These states have also faced repeated pink bollworm infestations in recent years, which have significantly impacted farmers’ confidence in growing cotton.

Experts highlight Punjab as the hardest hit, where cotton acreage once reached 8 lakh hectares. They suggest that if the Punjab government is serious about revitalizing its cotton sector, it should invite scientists from across the country to investigate the root cause of the pest problem and develop effective solutions.

While cotton prices have remained relatively strong in recent years, they have dropped significantly this season. In 2021, cotton prices ranged from Rs 13,000 to Rs 14,000 per quintal, falling to Rs 10,000 per quintal in 2022, and to around Rs 8,000 to Rs 8,100 per quintal in 2023.

This year, cotton prices in Punjab are ranging from Rs 6,000 to Rs 8,300 per quintal, with most of the crop being sold at Rs 7,400 to Rs 7,500 per quintal—almost the same as the MSP. The MSP for medium staple cotton is Rs 7,121 per quintal, while for long staple cotton, it is Rs 7,521 per quintal. In North India, farmers primarily grow medium staple cotton.